Strava annual mileage goal feedback

I've set an annual cycling mileage goal. It is now 21 days left of the year and I've got 355 km to go to reach my target. So perfectly doable even with some additional rest days during Christmas. But I am struggling to make sense of the feedback from Strava which says that I am "113 km behind pace". How is this worked out? Presumably it is based on my average daily mileage so far, but I can't make that fit the actual numbers. And why isn't Strava instead telling me the average daily mileage I have to do in order to reach my goal?

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  • It is based on daily averages and totals.  You should be able to figure it out if you do the math over the entire year.  Take the number of total kilometers you are targeting for the entire year (your goal) and divide by 365 days.  Take that value (your daily average needed) and multiply it by however many days we are into the year (in this case, 365-21=344).  Compare that number with where you are currently and that difference should be what you are seeing from Strava.  Remember that it has already calculated today in even though it is not complete.  An example would be if you had a total goal of 3,650km for the year (10 km/day) and you were looking at it on January 3rd.  If you had only ridden 20 kilometers so far (10km each day, the 1st and 2nd), it would say that you are 10km behind pace.  If you went out an hour later and rode those 10km, the next time you looked at it, it would say you were right on pace.  

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  • I'm guessing that the "113 km behind pace" is based calendar weeks...but it doesn't work out perfectly to the 355km you have to go because 29-31 December is a partial week. -- Dan 

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  • Thanks for the reply. It is pretty much along the lines of what I had already figured out. But for some reason the numbers don't quite add up. I guess it may be due to some rounding of numbers and also whether you count the current day in the total or not. When I calculated it myself I cane up with 108 km as opposed to the 113 km reported by Strava. Not a huge difference but it would still be good to understand the reason for the discrepancy.

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  • I've now redone the calculations and I can now get the numbers to add up. The problem was that I had counted the current days as still to go while Strava includes it in the number of days already gone. So using the figures in my original post I should have based my calculations on 20 days left to go instead of 21.

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